The common assertion made in poker books written by poker
professionals is the fact that some poker players will win some
money in the short term, but only poker professionals and very
good players will win money in the long term – this is why
top online poker sites
never have a shortage of players to fill game tables.
Why is this the case? It is based on the concept of expected value in poker. The expected value (EV) or expectation of a wager is how much you can expect to win in the long term if you always make that wager.
In the short term luck may play a big part in boosting a novice poker players bankroll. But as any poker professional will tell you, luck is not as much of a factor as skill if you want to win money in the long term. You shouldn’t be hoping to win hands in poker, sure sometimes you hope to hit a few outs to make the winning hand, but if you are only playing cards at such times that in the long run this play will make a profit.
While any poker professional would love to be lucky in poker, they also know skill plays a big part in texas holdem poker and if you are playing you’re a game and only make plays which have a positive expectation to win in the long term, then you can be certain that you will have a positive bankroll over the span of your poker playing career.
Unless you have a very big reason to make a player that will not be profitable for you in the long term, then just leave it out of your game. One reason could be attempting to make a bluff in the hopes that if you get caught out, you setup your opponent to profit from them later in the session.
The most basic explanation of expected value is it’s relevance to poker odds theory. In a nutshell, you should only be drawing to a hand, which you know would be the best hand if you hit the draw only if you are getting the pot odds to make the call and when you have a positive expected value.
For example, let’s say that you have Ah3h and the turn card is a heart card giving you a nut flush draw. All you would need is another heart card to hit on the river and you will make the nuts if the board does not pair. Even if it does pair and can be pretty sure that you still have the best hand. The probability that another heart card will hit on the river is about 1 in 5. If it will cost you $10 to call a turn bet, and the pot size is $100 which includes all previous bets all calls, then the pot is ten times the bet size and you are actually getting a positive expected value to make the call to see the next card.
In conclusion, avoid all situations where you are getting a negative expected value to make a call. If you remove this leak from your game it will improve your game immensely, and your bankroll will thank you for it!